Oil Takes a Break Ahead of OPEC+, Surplus Looms
Oil prices stabilized after plunging nearly 7% this week. The market awaits the OPEC+ meeting later this week, which is expected to restore idled supply, heightening concerns about a global oversupply.
Brent is trading below $66/barrel, and WTI is nearing $62. EIA data Wednesday showed US crude stockpiles rose for the first time in three weeks, while gasoline inventories surged to their highest level since June. Refinery runs also fell, likely due to maintenance.
OPEC+ is reportedly ready to agree to a production increase for November at its meeting next Sunday, despite projections of a widening surplus. Some Wall Street banks even predict Brent could fall to the $50s per barrel next year if supply continues to build.
Additional supply is also coming from outside OPEC+: the Ceyhan export terminal in Turkey is scheduled to load the first cargo from the Iraqi Kurdish region since 2023 after a reflow agreement was reached last month—adding more supply to the market.
At 8:49 a.m. Singapore time, Brent December contract rose 0.3% to $65.54, while WTI November contract strengthened 0.3% to $61.95. Overall, the market is adopting a wait-and-see approach ahead of the OPEC+ decision.
Key Points:
Oil stabilized after falling ~7% this week.
EIA: Crude stocks rise, gasoline surges; refinery runs decline.
OPEC+ likely to increase November production → risk of surplus.
Ceyhan sends more Kurdish oil → global supply increases.
Brent $65.54 (+0.3%), WTI $61.95 (+0.3%) (8:49 a.m. SGT).
Source: Bloomberg
