Rising Supply, Oil Prices Under Pressure
Oil prices fell in Asian trading on Friday (September 12th), fueled by concerns about slowing global demand and rising supply. However, Brent and WTI crude oil still recorded slight gains this week, supported by geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine and conflicts in the Middle East. Brent for November weakened 0.5% to $66.03 per barrel, while WTI fell 0.6% to $61.74 per barrel.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) monthly report weighed on sentiment, stating that global oil production in 2025 could potentially rise by 2.7 million barrels per day, higher than the previous estimate of 2.5 million bpd. Conversely, OPEC+ estimates that demand in 2025 will increase by 1.29 million bpd, nearly double the IEA's projection. Although OPEC+ agreed last weekend to increase production by a smaller amount than market fears, concerns about a surplus continue to weigh on prices.
From a macroeconomic perspective, weak US economic data and persistently rising consumer inflation (CPI) have raised concerns that energy demand could be depressed. However, the CPI has also reinforced expectations of a Fed interest rate cut next week, weakening the US dollar and providing some support for oil prices.
Geopolitical factors are also influencing the market. Reports indicate the US is pushing G7 countries to impose higher tariffs on buyers of Russian oil, particularly India and China. Washington is even pushing for tariffs to reach 100%, up from the current level of around 50%. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions in Europe and the Middle East are keeping the market on alert for potential supply disruptions. (ayu)
Source: Newsmaker.id
