Oil Holds 3-Day Rally, Focus on Trump's Move
Global oil held steady after a three-day rally, as the market weighed US President Donald Trump's latest comments on Russia and whether further sanctions would be imposed. Trump's tweet questioning Poland's airspace violations briefly triggered a brief price spike due to the closing of short positions. Brent held above $67/barrel on Thursday, while WTI approached $64 after a 1.7% gain in the previous session.
Trump previously stated he was ready to increase tariffs on India and China—two major buyers of Russian oil—to encourage Moscow to negotiate on Ukraine, but only if the EU participated. In Europe, the EU Commission confirmed it would "significantly" increase sanctions against Russia and called Poland's airspace violations a serious escalation.
According to Rystad Energy, Western attitudes toward Russia are hardening, and the market needs to brace for volatility due to the potential for unpredictable measures. This sentiment keeps the geopolitical risk premium high, even as market participants are also monitoring supply and demand data.
From a fundamental perspective, oil is still weakening year-on-year, with the risk of oversupply heading towards the end of 2025. US crude inventories rose by 3.9 million barrels last week, but remain below the five-year average. Citigroup assesses the market is in a tug-of-war between increasingly bearish fundamentals and geopolitical risks, while maintaining its projection for Brent to fall to the low $60s by year-end and continuing into 2026. (ayu)
Source: Newsmaker.id
