OPEC+ Slightly Increases, Could Prices Rebound?
Oil prices strengthened after a week of weakness, following OPEC+'s decision on Sunday to modestly increase production in October. Brent edged toward $66/barrel and WTI traded near $62, reflecting the cartel's caution amid the risk of oversupply. This rise marks the beginning of the rollback of cuts previously scheduled to last until the end of 2026.
Expectations of rising supply had already pressured Brent by -3.8% last week, limiting the decline at the start of this week. OPEC+ will add 137,000 bpd in October—less than the previous two months. However, the shadow of a surplus remains: the IEA estimates oversupply could reach a record next year, while Goldman Sachs projects Brent to fall to the low-$50s. Year-to-date, Brent is already down more than 10%, compounded by the impact of US trade tariffs on the energy demand outlook.
According to Chris Weston (Pepperstone), the "minimal selling pressure" at the opening indicates the market has already discounted the OPEC+ decision, with $65 as the technical "floor" for Brent. OPEC+ also emphasized that any increase will depend on market conditions and could be reversed if necessary. Although the return of barrels surprised some participants, prices remained relatively resilient.
Looking ahead, the market is monitoring whether the higher quotas will actually translate into exports. Some members, such as Kazakhstan, are under pressure to compensate for previous oversupply and potentially delay output increases, while several other producers lack spare capacity. Vandana Hari (Vanda Insights) believes that the small October increase makes last week's selling seem excessive, allowing buying space to re-emerge. (ayu)
Source: Newsmaker.id
