Oil Steady, Focus on India-Russia Trade Ahead of Tariff Hikes
Oil prices held steady as the market weighed the prospects for Russian crude flows to India, amid growing criticism from the Trump administration ahead of planned tariff hikes. Brent held above US$67/barrel, on track for its biggest weekly gain since early July. White House trade adviser Peter Navarro again criticized India for continuing to buy Russian oil and predicted a doubling of US import duties on August 27. President Donald Trump even threatened to raise tariffs on Indian imports to 50%, half of which would be tied to Russian oil purchases.
Despite mounting political pressure, Indian refineries resumed purchasing Russian cargoes after a brief pause. On the supplier side, Moscow officials expect supply flows to remain stable, indicating the Russia-India supply chain is relatively resilient to short-term policy risks.
Navarro's latest comments caution that headline risk regarding Russian energy remains high, as Trump attempts to end the war in Ukraine. However, prices have been relatively flat in recent weeks due to thin summer liquidity. As market participants return to activity, the focus shifts to the projected fourth-quarter oversupply.
According to Morgan Stanley, the oil market is heading for a large, but widely anticipated, surplus. This means prices are likely to weaken, but a chaotic sell-off is unlikely, as these expectations are already embedded in the market. (ayu)
Source: Newsmaker.id
