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Market & Economic Intelligence Platform Insight on Macro, Commodities, Equities & Policy

4 July 2025 03:39  |

Oil prices ease on US tariff uncertainty ahead of expected OPEC+ output boost

Oil prices fell slightly on Thursday as investors worried that U.S. tariffs could slow energy demand ahead of an expected supply boost by major crude producers.

Brent crude futures settled 31 cents, or 0.45%, lower to $68.80 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell 45 cents, or 0.67%, to $67 in thin trade on the eve of the Independence Day holiday.

President Donald Trump's 90-day pause on implementation of higher U.S. tariffs ends on July 9, and several large trading partners have yet to clinch trade deals, including the European Union and Japan. Oil traders are worried about the impact on the economy and fuel demand.

A preliminary trade deal between the U.S. and Vietnam boosted prices on Wednesday, but overall tariff uncertainty looms large.

Also weighing on prices, OPEC+ is expected to agree to raise output by 411,000 barrels per day at its policy meeting this weekend. Also, a private-sector survey showed service activity in China - the world's biggest oil importer - expanded in June at its slowest pace in nine months as demand weakened and new export orders declined.

In the U.S., a surprise build in crude inventories also highlighted demand concerns in the world's biggest crude consumer.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday that domestic crude inventories rose by 3.8 million barrels to 419 million barrels last week. Analysts in a Reuters poll had expected a drawdown of 1.8 million barrels.

U.S. energy firms this week cut the number of oil rigs by seven to 425, their lowest since September 2021, energy services firm Baker Hughes (BKR.O), said in its closely followed report on Thursday. Oil rig count is an indicator of future output.

U.S. job growth was solid in June while unemployment rates fell unexpectedly, data showed on Thursday. However, nearly half of the increase in nonfarm payrolls came from the government sector, with private sector gains slowing considerably as industries like manufacturing and retail grappled with Trump's aggressive tariffs on imports.

Source: Reuters

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