IEA Sees Wider Oil Supply Deficit as Global Stocks Tighten
The global oil market is expected to face a wider supply deficit this quarter as renewed conflict involving Iran disrupts production and shipping routes across the Middle East. The International Energy Agency (IEA) said global inventories are likely to fall much faster than previously projected.
The IEA estimates the oil market will face a shortfall of around 1.8 million barrels per day, driven by renewed hostilities and maritime disruptions that are slowing the recovery in production. For 2026 as a whole, the supply deficit is expected to be the widest in five years.
At the same time, high energy prices are beginning to weigh more heavily on demand. The IEA cut its global oil demand outlook and now expects consumption to decline by around **1.6 million barrels per day** this year, almost 50% more than previously estimated. That would mark the sharpest annual drop since the 2020 Covid-19 pandemic.
Disruptions have intensified again after a brief U.S.-Iran ceasefire in mid-June temporarily helped restore some exports from the Persian Gulf. Shipping routes and regional energy infrastructure are once again under pressure, pushing up gasoline and diesel prices and increasing costs for consumers.
Still, the decline in output remains smaller than some of the worst-case scenarios projected earlier in the conflict. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are using alternative pipelines, while tanker networks continue to move some crude through the Strait of Hormuz. U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said around **9 million barrels per day** have continued to flow over the past week, although that remains well below pre-war volumes.
Newsmaker Analysis : The IEA report suggests the oil market remains tight in the near term as global inventories continue to fall and Hormuz remains disrupted. This could keep crude prices elevated. However, the agency expects the market to move back into surplus toward the end of the year, which could ease price pressures if production recovers and shipping routes normalize.
Source : Newsmaker.id
