Strait of Hormuz Becomes New Oil Risk
Oil prices remained stable after three consecutive days of gains, as the market continued to monitor the escalating conflict in the Strait of Hormuz. Brent traded below US$85 per barrel after rising 12% in the previous three sessions, while WTI was below US$80 per barrel.
Tensions escalated after the United States launched another airstrike on Iran and announced it had disabled an empty tanker bound for an Iranian port. Earlier, Iran also attacked ships in the Strait of Hormuz, causing a decrease in shipping activity and raising concerns about energy supplies from the Gulf region.
President Donald Trump vowed to escalate attacks until Iran stops attacking ships and reopens the energy route. Meanwhile, Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) asserted that the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed until the US stops its attacks and blockade of Iranian ports.
Energy market risks are also exacerbated by supply disruptions from Russia, following near-daily attacks by Ukraine on Russian refineries and tankers. Analysts believe this situation could lead to more permanent supply disruptions, leading the market to price Brent at a new risk premium of around US$5 to US$15 per barrel.
Although tanker traffic is still operating with US assistance, the market has yet to see any signs of full normalization. As a result, the oil market could remain sensitive as long as threats from missiles, drones, and blockades persist in the Strait of Hormuz. If the disruptions persist for longer, energy prices could remain high, further depressing the global inflation outlook. (asd)*
Source: Newsmaker.id
