Morgan Stanley: Here's the Oil Price Prediction!
Morgan Stanley has cut its oil price forecast as shipping flows through the Strait of Hormuz have recovered more quickly than expected. Furthermore, continued strong US oil supply and weak Chinese demand increase the risk of oversupply in the global market.
The bank lowered its Dated Brent forecast for the third quarter of 2026 by US$15 to US$75 per barrel. Morgan Stanley also estimates that oil prices could fall further to US$70 per barrel in the third quarter of next year.
Morgan Stanley analysts believe that exports through the Strait of Hormuz have recovered more quickly than expected. They also cited the persistence of two key factors that have helped the market adapt in recent months: high US oil exports and low Chinese imports.
Although shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz slowed over the weekend after two ships were attacked, several signs indicate that tanker companies and ship crews are still willing to navigate the waterway. This is important because the Strait of Hormuz is a key route for re-opening oil supplies from the energy-rich region.
Morgan Stanley reported that 35 oil and gas tankers exited the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday. This figure is returning to the normal range seen before the conflict began in February. Meanwhile, Brent crude, which had surged above US$126 per barrel in April, has erased most of its gains, with the September contract closing at US$73.91 per barrel on Monday. (asd)*
Source: newsmaker.id
