Oil Soars, Hormuz Disruption Fuels Risk Premium
Oil and natural gas prices surged on Monday (March 2nd) after Israeli and US attacks on Iran—and Tehran's retaliation—triggered the shutdown of several energy facilities in the Middle East and exacerbated shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, the world's most strategic energy route.
In the oil market, Brent briefly surged to around $82.37/barrel (around +13%) before retreating to trade around $79.14/barrel at 14:03 GMT. WTI rose to around $72.07/barrel after earlier touching $75.33, confirming the market remains heavily headline-driven.
Supply disruptions became more apparent after reports that Saudi Arabia had shut its large domestic Ras Tanura refinery due to a drone attack, while QatarEnergy halted LNG production and prepared to declare force majeure on deliveries. These shutdowns/tightening operations increase the risk of short-term supply shortages, especially if the escalation continues.
The greatest pressure remains on the Strait of Hormuz. The escalation in the waterway has damaged several tankers, disrupted shipping activity, and reportedly left hundreds of vessels stranded. The market is now assessing the key questions: how long shipping through Hormuz will be disrupted and how strong importer stocks—especially in Asia—are to withstand the supply shock.
From a macro perspective, a prolonged oil rally risks reviving inflation through rising energy and logistics costs, while also threatening the global economic recovery. In the US, rising retail gasoline prices have the potential to become a sensitive issue again, putting market players' focus on the duration of the conflict and the normalization of energy shipments. (alg)
Source: Newsmaker.id
