US-Iran Negotiations to Continue Next Week, Oil Remains Volatile
Oil prices fluctuated as market participants digested conflicting headlines regarding the progress of the US-Iran nuclear talks. WTI edged down 0.3% but remained above $65/barrel, while Brent closed the session below $71/barrel after the two countries concluded their third round of negotiations in Geneva—just days before US President Donald Trump's deadline for reaching a deal.
Oman, which is acting as a mediator, stated that talks would continue next week in Vienna at a "technical" level, helping to ease market concerns about possible imminent US military action. As the session approached, bearish pressure intensified after Axios quoted a US official describing the direction of the talks as "positive"—an optimistic tone echoed by Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in his remarks on state television.
Earlier in the session, prices had rallied after Iranian state media reported that Tehran would not allow enriched uranium to leave the country. The issue of uranium enrichment remains a crucial sticking point for both sides. The Wall Street Journal reported that Washington is demanding that Tehran hand over its remaining nuclear fuel to the US. If this dispute fails to be resolved, the risk of escalation—including potential military action—looms again in the Middle East, a region that accounts for about a third of the world's crude oil supply.
Beyond geopolitical factors, the market is also facing more challenging fundamental signals. On Thursday, key indicators showed signs of oversupply in Brent for the first time outside of the contract's expiration date since 2024. The Brent-WTI price spread widened to around $5.89/barrel, indicating that North Sea market conditions are beginning to weaken, although the primary focus remains on the outcome of the Geneva talks.
Trump has stated that he prefers a diplomatic solution to Iran's nuclear program but warned of consequences if a deal fails. The US has also imposed new sanctions on more than 30 entities supporting Iran's oil and weapons sales, increasing pressure on Tehran ahead of negotiations. The options market, according to some analysts, indicates that investors are still hedging against a more challenging outcome.
On the physical supply side, Saudi Arabia is reportedly on track to export its largest crude oil in nearly three years this month, while Iran has accelerated tanker loading in recent days. Combined flows from Iraq, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates have also increased. The market now awaits the OPEC+ meeting on Sunday, which will determine April's supply policy—some delegates expect a modest production increase, but the outlook remains clouded by the risk of a US-Iran conflict clouding the decision.
At the close, WTI April fell 0.3% to end at $65.21/barrel in New York. Brent April fell 0.1% to end at $70.75/barrel.
Source: Newsmaker.id
