Oil Steady Ahead of US-Iran Talks Today
Oil prices were relatively stable in Asian trading on Thursday, ahead of the third round of US-Iran nuclear talks scheduled for today in Geneva. The market held its positions as the outcome of the talks is seen as crucial for near-term price direction, especially after oil's rally in recent weeks has been largely driven by geopolitical risk premiums.
At 03:42 GMT, Brent crude for April rose 0.3% to US$71.03/barrel, while WTI rose 0.2% to US$65.55/barrel. A US delegation, including special envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, is scheduled to meet Iranian officials in Geneva as Washington pushes for a deal on Tehran's nuclear and ballistic missile programs.
Iran has maintained that diplomatic channels remain open. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi hinted that a diplomatic solution is "within reach" if both sides commit to constructive engagement. However, US President Donald Trump warned that "bad things" could happen if there is no significant progress, so the market continues to consider an escalation scenario as the primary risk.
ING assesses that if a constructive resolution is reached, the market has the potential to gradually release the risk premium to around US$10/barrel. Conversely, if talks fail, the risk of an upside remains open—although the market reaction could be restrained until there is clarity regarding the scale of potential US action against Iran.
Beyond geopolitics, the market is also weighing fundamental factors. Iran is a key producer in OPEC, and supply disruptions, particularly those related to the Strait of Hormuz, would quickly push prices higher. However, if tensions ease, "weaker fundamentals" could become more apparent, especially if OPEC+ resumes supply increases starting in April (which is expected to be discussed later this week). (asd)
Source: Newsmaker.id
