Oil Steady Ahead of US-Iran Talks
Oil prices held steady ahead of Thursday's US-Iran nuclear talks, as the market weighed two competing forces: expectations of oversupply this year and rising geopolitical risks in the Middle East. WTI traded near US$66/barrel after closing slightly lower in the previous session, while Brent held below US$71/barrel, reflecting a wait-and-see market ahead of the diplomatic agenda.
The talks are scheduled to take place in Geneva, with the US delegation—including special envoy Steve Witkoff—expected to meet Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. At the same time, the US troop buildup in the region is keeping concerns of escalation high. The structure of the options market reflects this: interest remains bullish, while implied volatility remains high—indicating market participants are still placing a “risk premium” on prices.
US President Donald Trump reiterated his preference for a diplomatic solution, but reiterated his warning of consequences if a deal is not reached. The US also imposed new sanctions on more than 30 entities accused of supporting Iran's oil sales and arms supplies, increasing pressure on Tehran ahead of the talks and making geopolitical sentiment increasingly dominant in determining short-term prices.
On the supply side, concerns about conflict have actually prompted several major producers in the region to increase exports. Saudi Arabia is expected to export the most crude oil in nearly three years this month, while Iran has reportedly accelerated tanker loading in recent days. Vortexa data shows that combined flows from Iraq, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates could potentially increase by nearly 600,000 barrels per day compared to the same period in January—a factor that could limit room for price increases if no real supply disruptions occur.
At 7:41 a.m. Singapore time, the WTI April contract rose 0.3% to US$65.64/barrel, while the Brent April contract closed virtually unchanged on Wednesday at US$70.85/barrel. Market focus is now on the outcome of Thursday's talks and whether geopolitical tensions translate into real supply disruptions or simply remain a risk premium. (alg)
Source: Newsmaker.id
