US-Iran Deal Advances, Oil Shifting Direction?
Oil prices held losses in Asian trading on Wednesday after plunging around 2% in the previous session. Market participants weighed signs of progress in US-Iran talks, but remained cautious as a final agreement that could potentially increase supply was not yet considered imminent.
Brent rose 23 cents (0.34%) to $67.65/barrel at 04:12 GMT, while WTI gained 19 cents (0.3%) to $62.52. Despite the slight rebound, both remain near two-week lows, reflecting market sentiment that has not yet fully recovered.
Iran and the US reportedly reached an understanding on key "guiding principles" in the nuclear talks, but Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi stressed that this does not mean a deal is imminent. Some analysts also remain skeptical about the continuation of diplomatic momentum, as the road to a final agreement remains long and prone to political obstacles.
Additional pressures come from supply-side and geopolitical risks. Russian media reports indicate that production at the Tengiz oil field in Kazakhstan has begun to increase after being disrupted in January, and the field is said to be targeting a return to full capacity by February 23. Meanwhile, Eurasia Group assesses a 65% chance of a US military strike against Iran before the end of April—a factor that could potentially drive up risk premiums.
The market's next focus will be on US oil inventory data: the API report on Wednesday and the EIA report on Thursday, with analyst surveys estimating that US crude stocks rose by around 2.3 million barrels, while gasoline fell by around 200,000 barrels and distillates fell by around 1.6 million barrels. Cross-asset impact: if Middle East tensions ease and stock data strengthens (stocks rise), oil tends to rally; conversely, if geopolitical headlines heat up, oil can surge due to the risk premium. When the risk premium rises, gold and silver typically benefit as safe havens, while the dollar can strengthen if the market enters a risk-off mode. However, if the market perceives the conflict as worsening the global economic outlook, the dollar's response could be mixed depending on the direction of US yields. (asd)
Source: Newsmaker.id
