Oil Holds, Iran Key
Oil prices moved steadily at the start of the week, as market participants monitored geopolitical risks ahead of the resumption of talks between the United States and Iran on Tuesday. The market's primary focus was on the potential for escalation that could trigger supply disruptions in the Middle East.
Brent crude traded below $68 per barrel, after recording its first consecutive weekly decline this year, while WTI held around $63 per barrel. Market sentiment was also influenced by US President Donald Trump's statement on Friday, which called regime change the best outcome for Iran, raising tensions ahead of negotiations in Geneva.
Oil has gained more than 11% this year as rising tensions with Iran and concerns about supply disruptions in a region that supplies about a third of global oil production became dominant factors. However, some of these gains began to erode as the risk of an imminent attack was perceived to have eased, and adjustments to global demand growth projections by the International Energy Agency (IEA) added to concerns about oversupply.
Meanwhile, US-led talks to end the war in Ukraine are also scheduled to take place in Geneva on Tuesday. However, the chances of a quick agreement are still considered limited, so the prospect of a large-scale return of Russian supplies to the market is not yet a primary scenario. Tensions remain after a drone attack on the Black Sea coast over the weekend reportedly damaged infrastructure at the port of Taman and fuel tanks.
From the OPEC+ camp, several members stated there was room to resume production increases in April, considering concerns about glut overblown. However, the group has not made a final decision ahead of its March 1 meeting, and the direction of policy is said to depend on whether the US chooses military action or reaches a nuclear deal with Iran.
In early Asian trading, Brent for April settlement was stable at around $67.73 per barrel (7:16 a.m. Singapore time), while WTI for March delivery held around $62.83 per barrel. The US market did not have any settlement transactions on Monday due to the President's Day holiday, so price movements are potentially more limited until trading activity returns to normal. (asd)
Source: Newsmaker.id
