Oil Prices Fall Weekly, Iran & OPEC+ Determined
Oil prices closed the week with their first consecutive weekly decline in 2026, as the market began to balance two major narratives: the potential for a renewed increase in OPEC+ supply and developments in the US-Iran nuclear negotiations, which could reduce risk premiums. On Friday, price movements were relatively calm ahead of the Presidents' Day holiday in the US, which typically leads to thin liquidity and more volatile price movements.
At market close, the March WTI contract was virtually unchanged, settling slightly up +0.1% at $62.89/barrel, while the April Brent contract rose +0.3% to $67.75/barrel. However, on a weekly basis, WTI remained down around -1%, confirming that market sentiment remains weighed down by future supply concerns and the risk-off tone in global assets in recent days.
Geopolitically, attention remains focused on the Middle East. US President Donald Trump called the US increasing its military presence in the region "insurance" in case a nuclear deal is not reached, but he also signaled optimism that negotiations could lead to success. For oil traders, this mix of signals typically keeps the market on edge: the risk of supply disruptions remains, but the likelihood of a rapid escalation is also seen as diminishing as long as diplomatic channels remain open.
At the same time, the most pressing factor for prices comes from supply. Several delegates have suggested there is room for OPEC+ to resume production increases starting in April, believing that concerns about a glut/surplus are overblown. While no formal decision has been made (and official discussions leading up to the March 1 meeting are still limited), these policy direction signals are enough to curb buying interest—especially after the market rallied in early 2026 on geopolitical headlines.
The "loose supply" sentiment was also reinforced by discussions among industry participants at a London energy conference, who assessed that global supply could potentially outstrip demand this year—which could ultimately push inventories up, particularly in the Atlantic region, which influences global price formation. However, the effects have not yet been fully felt due to ongoing supply disruptions in several countries and the buildup of sanctioned oil, which has created an uneven distribution of supply.
In conclusion: oil is entering a "tug of war" phase. As long as the market views the possibility of additional OPEC+ supply as more realistic than the risk of Middle East disruption, rallies tend to be restrained, and volatility can emerge suddenly—especially when liquidity is thin ahead of the holidays and the market is more reactive to headlines. (yds)
Source: Newsmaker.id
