Oil Weakens: Iran Deal Discussed, War Risk Remains
Oil prices fluctuated slightly on Thursday (February 12th) as traders focused more on US-Iran tensions than on signs of loosening supply. In the latest trading session, Brent fell about 0.27% to $69.21/barrel, while WTI weakened about 0.12% to $64.55/barrel—indicating the market is still adopting a wait-and-see approach, assessing the extent of the risk of supply disruptions from the Middle East.
Brent had previously received a boost after strengthening nearly 1% the day before, but US President Donald Trump's comments about the option of a nuclear deal with Tehran have not completely calmed the market. Although Trump called a deal an option, concerns about the possibility of escalation remain—especially as Washington is also ramping up military forces in the region, keeping the risk premium from completely disappearing.
On the fundamental side, pressure comes from the "abundant supply" narrative. The IEA's monthly report assesses that demand growth in 2026 will slow and the market could potentially face a large surplus (supply > demand), making it easy for prices to bounce back whenever news of tighter supplies emerges.
This combination of two factors has oil being pulled in two directions: geopolitics is holding back further declines, while supply data is limiting rallies. In the New York session update, which was also closely monitored by market participants, Brent for April fell around 0.7% to $68.91, and WTI for March was around $64.19—illustrating that the market is still comfortably rangebound, lacking a strong trigger for a breakout.
Source: Newsmaker.id
