Geopolitics Holds Back Oil, Inventory Data Acts as a Brake
Oil prices stabilized on Thursday (February 12th), as the market reassigned a risk premium to US-Iran tensions despite US inventory data showing swelling domestic supplies. This movement confirms one thing: geopolitical headlines are still more "noise" than signals of a short-term surplus.
As of 3:50 PM WIB, Brent was at $69.60/barrel (+0.29%) and WTI was at $64.83/barrel (+0.31%). The gains were moderate, but enough to keep prices near the psychological $70 level for Brent.
From a geopolitical perspective, market focus is on the potential for escalation in the Middle East. Recent reports indicate the Pentagon has directed a second aircraft carrier strike group to be ready if needed, while the US-Iran diplomatic process remains ongoing with no certainty about the next round's schedule. This combination of "negotiations underway, military options remaining on the table" is keeping traders reluctant to unwind long positions too quickly.
However, the upside room remains "limited" by the supply data. The EIA reported that US crude oil inventories rose by 8.5 million barrels to 428.8 million barrels in the latest week—a figure that reinforces the narrative that supplies remain tight, especially if tensions don't escalate into a physical disruption to oil flows.
The bottom line: as long as the Iran threat remains intact, oil is likely to remain supported. But if headlines subside while inventories continue to rise, the market could quickly enter profit-taking mode—especially in the Brent area near $70.
Source: Newsmaker.id
