US Stockpiles Surge, But Oil Remains Strong, Why?
A Peek: Oil prices edged higher in Thursday morning trading, as the market re-assigned a "risk premium" to US-Iran tensions, despite data showing a buildup of US supplies. Market sentiment remains sensitive to geopolitical headlines, particularly the risk of shipping disruptions and potential military escalation.
At 12:55 WIB, Brent was around US$69.55 per barrel (+0.22%), while WTI was around US$64.82 per barrel (+0.29%).
The main focus of the market was on the uncertain dynamics of negotiations. US President Donald Trump stated that no "definitive" decision had been made after meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, but Washington asserted that negotiations with Tehran were still ongoing. This situation has led the market to assess two-way risk: the opportunity for diplomacy exists, but a "hard" scenario remains open if talks stall.
On the other hand, the fundamental factor holding back the rally stems more from inventory data. The EIA's weekly report showed US crude oil inventories jumped by about 8.5 million barrels (to about 428.8 million barrels), well above market expectations—signaling a return to aggressive domestic supply. This supply boost is typically bearish, so this price increase appears more "risk-driven" than purely supply-demand data.
Going forward, market attention will be focused on updated outlooks from global energy agencies and producers. OPEC's monthly reports and IEA projections often determine whether 2026 leads to a clearer surplus or a continued tight physical supply—especially if geopolitics disrupts routes or exports from the region.
In conclusion, oil is currently in a "tug-of-war" zone: Iran headlines are keeping the risk premium alive, while swelling US stockpiles limit room for further upside. As long as there is no certainty on the diplomatic path, volatility is likely to persist—and the market will be quick to react to any signs of escalation or de-escalation. (asd)
Source: Bloomberg.com
