Oil prices slip slightly after strong gains; geopolitical tensions remain
Oil prices edged marginally lower Monday, consolidating after strong gains at the end of last week as investors weighed concerns about a potential supply glut against heightened geopolitical risks and awaited signals from a key Federal Reserve policy meeting later this week.
At 08:15 ET (13:15 GMT), Brent oil futures expiring in March edged down 0.2% to $64.97 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures slipped 0.3% to $60.91 per barrel.
Both benchmarks rose more than 2% on Friday, supported by a sharp increase in geopolitical risk premiums.
Oil holds gains amid geopolitical risks
Markets were on edge after the U.S. signalled an escalation in military posturing.
President Donald Trump said an “armada” of U.S. naval forces -- including an aircraft carrier group -- was heading toward the Middle East amid rising tensions with Iran, prompting fears that any conflict involving Tehran could disrupt crude shipments from one of the world’s major producers.
Oil markets have also been influenced by Trump’s recent geopolitical tensions over Greenland, which have unsettled broader financial markets.
On the supply front, some pressure on prices eased after Kazakhstan’s main crude export route returned to full loading capacity. The Caspian Pipeline Consortium said operations at its Black Sea terminal were restored after repairs were completed at a mooring point, allowing exports to resume at normal levels.
Fed meeting awaited
Despite the geopolitical backdrop, investors remain cautious about the longer-term outlook. Concerns persist that global oil markets could face an oversupply later this year if production growth outpaces demand, particularly as output from non-OPEC producers remains resilient.
Attention is now turning to the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting due this week, with markets widely expecting U.S. policymakers to keep interest rates unchanged.
Investors will closely watch the Fed’s guidance for clues on the timing of potential rate cuts later this year, as interest rate expectations can influence oil demand through their impact on economic growth and the U.S. dollar.
OPEC+ to meet on Sunday
Additionally, OPEC+ is expected to keep its pause on oil output increases for March at a meeting on Sunday, Reuters reported, with prices rising due to a drop in Kazakhstan’s oil production.
The meeting of eight members of OPEC+, which pumps about half the world’s oil, follows an 8% jump in oil prices so far this month to exceed $66 a barrel despite concern that a supply glut would push prices down.
OPEC+ raised oil output targets by around 2.9 million barrels per day from April to December 2025, equal to almost 3% of world demand, and paused monthly hikes for January-March amid weak demand forecasts.
Source: Investing.com
