Goldman Sachs raises its gold price target to $4,900 by end-2026
Goldman Sachs lifted its year-end 2026 gold price forecast to $4,900 an ounce from $4,300, saying the recent rally is being driven by durable demand from both central banks and Western investors.
The bank said the inflows behind gold’s 17% gain since late August — particularly Western ETF inflows and likely central bank purchases — are “sticky” and have effectively raised the starting point for its pricing model. Speculative positioning, by contrast, has remained “broadly stable,” Goldman noted.
Gold traded near record highs of $4,000 an ounce in Asia on Tuesday, supported by haven flows tied to political uncertainty in the U.S., Japan, and France. Buying from the People’s Bank of China and expectations of further Federal Reserve rate cuts have also buoyed sentiment.
At 08:42 GMT (04:42 ET), spot XAU/USD prices traded at $3,952.56, down 0.2% on the day.
Despite the higher starting point, Goldman said its projected 23% price increase through end-2026 remains unchanged. The forecast is anchored in sustained central bank accumulation and eventual recovery in ETF demand as rates fall.
“Central bank buying [is expected] to average 80/70 tonnes in 2025/2026 as EM central banks are likely to continue the structural diversification of their reserves into gold,” analysts led by Lina Thomas wrote in a client note, adding that this trend contributes roughly 19 percentage points to the expected price gain.
The bank expects Western ETF holdings to rise as the Fed cuts the funds rate by 100 basis points by mid-2026, adding around five percentage points to prices. Speculative positioning is projected to normalize, trimming one point from the total increase.
Goldman said risks to its upgraded forecast remain tilted to the upside, citing potential “private sector diversification into the relatively small gold market,” which could lift ETF demand beyond its model assumptions.
Source : Investing.com
