Gold Steady, Heading for Third Weekly Gain Ahead of US-Iran Talks
Gold prices held steady around $4,770 per ounce on Friday and were on track for a weekly gain of nearly 2%, driven by hopes for a diplomatic path to the Iran war and continued central bank buying. The market now awaits weekend negotiations in Islamabad, where a US delegation led by Vice President J.D. Vance is scheduled to meet Iranian officials, as well as the release of US inflation figures on Friday afternoon.
Geopolitical sentiment remains mixed. President Donald Trump expressed “optimism” that a deal can be reached, but also threatened Tehran over alleged fees for shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, Israeli attacks in Lebanon are said to be again testing the resilience of the ceasefire agreed earlier this week.
Additional support comes from cross-asset dynamics: the US dollar index is down 1.2% this week, helping dollar-priced gold. Global stocks have recovered, while oil is expected to post its biggest weekly decline since June, although energy supply uncertainty remains a closely monitored factor.
However, inflation risks remain a drag. The energy supply shock raised inflation concerns and prompted the market to consider a scenario of prolonged high interest rates, which is generally unfavorable for gold as it offers no yield. The minutes of the Fed's March 17-18 meeting also showed officials assessed that the conflict presents a two-pronged risk: inflation could rise, but a prolonged war could also depress growth and the labor market.
On the official demand side, the market highlighted signs that reserve accumulation remains ongoing: Poland maintained its 700-ton reserve target, while China added about 5 tons in March—the largest monthly purchase in more than a year. ANZ believes the recent price correction has the potential to trigger further stockpiling, with official central bank purchases estimated at around 850 tons throughout 2026.
The market's next focus will be the outcome of the Islamabad talks, the direction of the US CPI, the movement of the dollar, and whether energy pressures remain high or begin to ease—a combination that will determine whether gold continues its weekly gains or falls back into correction. (gn)
Source: Newsmaker.id
