Gold Reclaims $5,000 After US CPI, Rate Cut Speculation Rises Again
Gold prices reversed course on Friday (February 13th) and re-penetrated the psychological $5,000/oz area, after being hit sharply in the previous session. The rebound came after the US inflation report showed lighter-than-expected price pressures, rekindling market speculation that the Federal Reserve could begin easing interest rates sooner than the recently dominant "durable" scenario.
January Consumer Price Index (CPI) data recorded annual inflation of 2.4% year-on-year, lower than the 2.5% estimate and down from 2.7% in December. On a monthly basis, CPI rose 0.2% month-on-month (lower than the consensus of 0.3%). However, core CPI remained "sticky" at 2.5% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month, indicating that inflation is indeed easing but not yet sufficiently "ready" to prompt the Fed to rush into aggressive interest rate cuts.
The market reaction was also mixed: gold initially approached $5,000, then retreated, before buyers finally emerged and absorbed the selling around $4,950—creating a "dip-buying" effect that pushed the price back toward its daily high. This pattern emphasizes that, after the high volatility of the past few days, gold is entering a data-sensitive consolidation phase: the slightest macro shock can immediately change the market's position.
While the CPI provided some fresh impetus, the US data backdrop this week remains quite solid. The latest employment report showed the addition of around 130,000 jobs in January and the unemployment rate dropping to 4.3%, which lessens the pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates quickly when the economy appears to be weakening. With the combination of "inflation falling but labor remaining resilient," the Fed is likely waiting for further confirmation that the disinflationary process is truly underway.
The key question: will the Fed cut rates? After hovering around 3% at its peak, the three most recent figures show a downward trend (2.7% at the end of 2025, then dropping to 2.4% in January). This has opened the stage for a rate cut, but the tone of most Fed officials has recently remained cautious: they want additional evidence to avoid making a mistake and triggering a rebound in inflation.
In financial markets, the probability of a rate cut is starting to rise for June. According to Prime Market Terminal data cited by FXStreet, the chance of a 25 bps cut in June is around 55%. On the dollar side, the greenback is also still weakening weekly: the DXY is around 96.84 and is expected to decline by around 0.85% weekly. This is a factor contributing to gold's strength after the CPI release.
Focus shifts: FOMC Minutes, Fed officials' speeches, and PCE
Next week, the market will shift to a series of catalysts: FOMC Minutes, Fed officials' speeches, Durable Goods data, housing data releases, and then, towards the end of the week, Initial Jobless Claims, the second estimate of Q4 2025 GDP, and, most crucially, Core PCE (the Fed's favorite inflation indicator).
With volatility still not fully abated, gold has the potential to remain sensitive—not only to data, but also to rapid shifts in risk-on/risk-off sentiment.
Source: Newsmaker.id
