The Correction Isn't Over: JPMorgan Raises Year-End Target to $6,300
JPMorgan Chase & Co. raised its gold price target for end-2026 to $6,300 per ounce, despite the market's recent significant volatility. The bank believes the recent sharp correction is more like a "cooling-off" after a rapid rally, rather than a sign that gold's major trend is over.
Gold and silver did fall sharply at the end of last week, triggered by a combination of profit-taking and a rebound in the US dollar. However, according to JPMorgan's research team, gold's underlying fundamentals remain strong: central bank and investor demand is considered "sticky" and continues to flow, so the medium-term upward trend is not yet broken.
The key to this target revision lies in larger-than-expected official sector purchasing activity. JPMorgan noted that central banks purchased approximately 230 tons in the fourth quarter, bringing total purchases for 2025 to approximately 863 tons—even as prices have already surpassed $4,000/ounce. For 2026, JPMorgan estimates central bank demand will remain high at around 800 tons, indicating that the reserve diversification trend has not slowed.
From the investor perspective, the signals are also strong. JPMorgan highlights the increase in gold ETF holdings, the continued solid demand for physical bullion and coins, and the growing portfolio allocation to gold as a hedge against macro and geopolitical risks. The bottom line: gold is increasingly seen as "insurance" by more parties, not just a trading instrument.
JPMorgan analysts led by Gregory Shearer believe that, although prices have risen significantly and "the air feels thinner," the gold market has not yet reached levels that typically cause a structural rally to collapse under its own weight. They argue that demand remains above the historical threshold needed to keep the market tight—so rising prices do not automatically mean "the bubble has burst."
For silver, JPMorgan's tone is more cautious. They note that silver lacks the "structural buyers" of central banks that gold does when prices fall, so the potential for short-term shocks is considered greater. Nevertheless, JPMorgan still sees the average silver price floor potentially remaining in the $75–$80/ounce range, and believes silver is unlikely to erase all of its recent gains, although its movements remain at risk of being more volatile than gold.
Source: Newsmaker.id
