China Tariffs Could Drive US Crude Exports Lower in 2025
An emerging trade war between the United States and China could drive U.S. crude exports lower in 2025 for the first time since the pandemic by reducing access to the Chinese market, according to analysts.
That outlook reflects a potential unintended consequence of President Donald Trump's protectionist policies, running counter to his administration's vow to maximize already record-high U.S. oil and gas production.
The U.S. has grown into the world's third-largest exporter behind Saudi Arabia and Russia since it lifted a 40-year federal ban on exports of domestic oil in 2015. While U.S. crude exports grew only slightly in 2024, the last time they fell was in 2021, after the COVID-19 outbreak slashed global energy demand.
"International demand for U.S. crude may be peaking out, and this could only further accelerate that," said Matt Smith, an analyst at Kpler.
Rohit Rathod, a senior analyst with ship tracking firm Vortexa, said he expected total U.S. oil exports to slip to 3.6 million barrels per day in 2025 from 3.8 million bpd in 2024, as Chinese tariffs keep some U.S. oil grades at home.
China consumes around 166,000 barrels of U.S. crude daily, roughly 5% of all U.S. export cargoes. Some of that could stay on U.S. shores or be diverted to other markets after Beijing announced retaliatory tariffs this week.
The fall in exports would most likely be made up of medium density types of oil with a higher sulfur content, such as Mars and Southern Green Canyon that are considered medium-sour grades. Those types made up about 48% of the U.S. crude imported by China last year.
Source : Reuters
