Hormuz Mines Could Delay Oil Supply Normalization
The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz may not immediately return shipping traffic to normal, even though the United States and Iran have reached a preliminary agreement to open the passage. Several maritime security and shipping sources estimate that the process of ensuring mine-free waters could take several weeks, so energy supply risks have not yet been completely eliminated from the market.
Conventional mine-sweeping operations and the use of advanced underwater drones are expected to take 40 to 50 days before insurance companies, ship operators, and oil industry players are confident enough to fully resume passage through Hormuz. This situation could potentially hold back tens of millions of barrels of oil from the Gulf, especially since the region's supply has been disrupted since the US and Israeli attacks on Iran on February 28.
The Strait of Hormuz is a vital waterway, handling approximately 20% of the world's daily oil and LNG supply before the war. Therefore, a slower normalization process could maintain a risk premium in the energy market, even though oil prices have fallen following news of the US-Iran agreement. Every barrel of Gulf exports is crucial as inventories in major economies are said to be heading towards their lowest levels since at least 2003.
The shipping industry remains cautious. BIMCO assesses that the current transit risk remains high as the mine threat remains a concern. A truly mine-free passage will need to be established before ships can resume normal operations. A single supertanker and its cargo of crude oil can be worth around US$300 million, so war risk insurers, shipowners, and oil companies need strong security guarantees.
Uncertainty also arises because it is unclear how many mines may have been planted around the strait. Iran has previously threatened to deploy sea mines, while the US has stated it has targeted Iranian vessels suspected of carrying mines. In early June, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Iran had planted mines across much of the Strait of Hormuz, while the German navy recorded reports of mines found at four locations based on information from the US and British navies.
Shipping traffic has indeed begun to increase in recent weeks, but it remains far from normal. Verifiable shipping data shows an average of 12 to 15 ships per day passing through the strait, compared to 120 to 140 per day before the war. This suggests that the reopening of Hormuz depends not only on a political agreement but also on technical and security guarantees on the ground.
Fundamentally, mine risk could restrain oil price declines as the market still faces potential physical bottlenecks to supply flows. If the clearance process is slow, supply pressure from the Gulf could persist longer and maintain the risk of energy inflation. However, if safe passage is successfully established and shipping volumes recover, war premiums on oil could continue to decline. The market's next focus will be on mine clearance progress, insurance company responses, the volume of ships leaving the Gulf, and the certainty of implementation of the US-Iran agreement. (gn)
Source: Newsmaker.id
