US: Israel–Lebanon Agree to Conditional Ceasefire!
Israel and Lebanon have agreed to implement a ceasefire if Hezbollah also ceases hostilities, according to a joint statement from Israel, Lebanon, and the United States. The agreement stipulates a “complete cessation of fire” by the Iran-backed group as a key prerequisite.
In the same document, Hezbollah is also required to withdraw all its operations from the southern Lebanese region below the Litani River, near the Israeli border. Israel and Lebanon have stated that they have no hostile intentions toward each other and are continuing their commitment to direct negotiations to build trust, resolve remaining issues, and advance the framework of a more comprehensive agreement.
Trump previously claimed he spoke with “high-level representatives” of Hezbollah and obtained a commitment that fire between Hezbollah and Israel would cease. However, until implementation on the ground is verified, markets continue to view this ceasefire as conditional and fragile, especially considering that previous cross-border incidents have often occurred despite the announcement of a permit to fire.
This agreement also directly links to broader diplomatic channels. Iran is demanding that Israel halt attacks on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon as part of a package deal with the US to defuse the regional war, which has disrupted energy flows and made the Strait of Hormuz a key sticking point in Washington-Tehran negotiations.
Market Impact: If the ceasefire holds and reduces the risk of regional escalation, oil could potentially correct due to the risk premium of supply cuts, which typically boosts the dollar (reduced safe-haven demand) and allows gold to stabilize or strengthen slightly through a weaker USD/yield. However, if the ceasefire fails or Hezbollah and Israel resume attacks, the scenario reverses: oil prices rise rapidly, the dollar tends to strengthen, and gold could remain fragile as rising energy prices drive inflation and maintain high interest rate expectations. (asd)*
Source: Newsmaker.id
