US–Iran Agree on Guiding Principles But Nuclear Deal Remains Far Off
The United States and Iran reported progress in the latest round of indirect talks on the nuclear dispute. Tehran said the two sides had reached an understanding on a number of “guiding principles” as a basis for resuming negotiations, although a final agreement has not yet been reached.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi emphasized that this achievement should not be interpreted as a signal that a comprehensive agreement is imminent. He stated that discussions remain at the level of general framework and direction, while the crucial technical and political details remain to be negotiated.
Several analysts believe the market remains cautious because “diplomatic momentum” can shift rapidly. While there is room for a rebound in sentiment, skepticism persists because the path to a final agreement is considered long and prone to stumbling over sensitive issues on both sides.
While the dialogue is ongoing, regional security tensions have not completely subsided. Iran reportedly temporarily closed part of the Strait of Hormuz for several hours due to military exercises, a move that usually immediately attracts attention from energy markets given the Strait of Hormuz’s role as a vital route for global energy exports.
Risk factors also come from the assessments of political consultancies. Eurasia Group reportedly estimates a 65% probability of a US military strike against Iran before the end of April—a scenario that could further increase risk premiums if tensions escalate.
Looking ahead, market attention will be focused on the continuation of talks in the coming weeks, including whether these "guiding principles" develop into a more concrete draft agreement. As long as there is uncertainty regarding the form of the agreement and the implementation timeline, sentiment is expected to continue to fluctuate between hopes for de-escalation and fears of escalation.
5 key points (in summary):
- The US and Iran reached an understanding on "guiding principles" for resuming negotiations.
- Araqchi emphasized that a final agreement is not yet imminent; details remain elusive.
- Iran temporarily closed part of the Strait of Hormuz for military exercises, resulting in persistent tensions.
- Analysts believe the market remains skeptical about the sustainability of diplomatic momentum.
- Eurasia Group assesses the risk of US military action against Iran before the end of April as still significant (65%). (asd)
Source: Newsmaker.id
