2026: Gold Explodes, Oil Falls!
Goldman Sachs predicts gold will continue to rise and set a new record next year, while crude oil will be held back by the burden of a supply surplus. The bottom line: "safe haven" commodities are increasingly sought after, but energy could be squeezed by oversupply.
In Goldman's base case, the gold price is projected to reach $4,900 per ounce by December 2026. The main drivers are aggressive central bank buying and large investors diversifying (beyond just holding traditional assets).
Conversely, for oil, Goldman estimates Brent will average $56/barrel next year and WTI $52/barrel, due to an oversupply of around 2 million barrels per day. They emphasize that, barring major supply disruptions or OPEC production cuts, lower oil prices in 2026 will likely be necessary to restore market balance.
In other commodities, Goldman believes the largest LNG supply surge in history has the potential to depress TTF prices by around 35% until mid-2027. Copper is also predicted to outperform aluminum, as China's push to secure critical metal supplies overseas could boost aluminum production. Meanwhile, iron ore is expected to fall to $88/ton by the end of 2026, partly due to increased supply, including from mines in Africa.
The big picture: Goldman sees commodities as a key battleground in the US-China geopolitical rivalry, including the struggle for influence over technology and AI dominance. So, going forward, it won't just be a matter of simple demand and supply—it will also be about state strategy, supply chains, and the global power game. (asd)
Source: Bloomberg.com
