ADP Positive, But US Hiring Remains Unconvincing
Private-sector employment growth in the United States continued to show expansion in early August. Preliminary estimates from the ADP Research Institute and the Stanford Digital Economy Lab, released on Tuesday (Aug 18), indicated that private payrolls increased by an average of approximately 9,500 jobs per week during the four-week period ending August 1.
These weekly figures provide a more immediate snapshot of US labor market conditions, following the previous monthly ADP report which showed a gain of around 44,000 jobs in July. While the figures remain positive, the pace of hiring is relatively subdued, suggesting that companies are not yet aggressively ramping up their workforce needs.
This data has drawn attention following recent signs of a slowdown in various US economic indicators, including weak Nonfarm Payrolls and Retail Sales figures. These conditions reinforce the view that the labor market as a whole is beginning to lose momentum compared to earlier periods.
ADP and the Stanford Digital Economy Lab utilize this weekly report as a supplementary indicator to track labor market changes more rapidly than the monthly report allows. As these are preliminary estimates, the market will await further data to confirm whether the hiring slowdown is indeed persisting.
Newsmaker Analysis: Continued positive payroll growth may slightly temper concerns regarding an overly rapid deterioration of the labor market; however, the pace is insufficient to alter the narrative of a slowing US economy. Should subsequent labor data prove weak, expectations for the Federal Reserve to hold rates steady could strengthen, likely pressuring the dollar and supporting gold prices. Conversely, an acceleration in hiring could drive yields and the dollar back up, thereby capping gains for gold. (arl)
Source: Newsmaker.id
