Brent Rises Slightly, OPEC Increases Production, Causing Panic!
OPEC+ officially approved a crude oil production quota increase for July 2026 by 188,000 barrels per day (bpd) as part of a phased policy to offset supply disruptions caused by Middle East tensions. This decision was made even though the Iran-US conflict and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz continue to restrict global oil flows. With this quota increase, member countries hope to increase theoretical supply to the market and stabilize medium-term energy prices.
Despite the production quota increase, several analysts warn that actual production delivered to the market remains limited, as strategic routes such as the Strait of Hormuz remain affected by the conflict. This flow disruption, coupled with geopolitical risks, continues to make the global oil market sensitive to news of attacks or retaliatory attacks in the Gulf region.
On the demand side, OPEC remains optimistic. OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais stated that global oil demand growth for 2026 is still projected at around 1.2 million bpd. This signals that OPEC believes the market is still strong enough to accommodate additional supply, even if geopolitical turmoil limits physical distribution.
This policy also serves as a fundamental signal that OPEC is striving to maintain price balance and market stability, by prioritizing supply from major producing countries while monitoring Middle East tensions. International investors are monitoring this move as an effort by OPEC+ to contain a surge in oil prices that could trigger higher global inflation.
Analystically, the combination of quota increases and geopolitical conditions has made oil prices volatile. While Brent and WTI rose by up to 4% during the days of the conflict, the market is also reacting to the potential supply gap that could emerge if tensions in the Gulf escalate. The OPEC quota increase did not necessarily lower prices significantly as concerns over oil shipping risks remain.
Brent Outlook: Brent is currently hovering around US$92 per barrel, fluctuating slightly. If the Middle East conflict subsides and export flows through Hormuz stabilize, Brent prices have the potential to maintain moderate gains in the US$93–95 range. However, any military escalation or disruption to oil distribution could immediately suppress supply and push Brent prices up again. Technically, Brent is showing a sideways-to-upward trend, with volatility remaining high due to geopolitical factors and market speculation. (asd)
Source: Newsmaker.id
