CPI Will Be a Major Determinant of Gold's Direction This Week and Next
Global gold prices rebounded in today's trading after sharp pressure in the previous session. Spot gold rose around 1.3% to $4,982/oz, while US gold futures were around $5,001/oz. This recovery follows a major sell-off that dragged gold down around 3% on Thursday and broke below the psychological level of $5,000/oz.
Market participants believe today's rebound is largely supported by bargain hunting (buying at dips) and a cautious stance ahead of the release of US inflation data. The primary focus is on the January 2026 Consumer Price Index (CPI), scheduled for release on February 13, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET (approximately 8:30 PM WIB).
Fundamentally, gold is at a crossroads between support from expectations of interest rate cuts and pressure from relatively high yields.
The market is awaiting confirmation of whether inflation is heating up again or slowing down. Reuters highlighted the consensus forecast for January's CPI to rise 0.3% month-on-month and annual inflation to slow to 2.5%, while core CPI is also expected to rise 0.3%, with core inflation yoy at 2.5%. Actual results that deviate from these expectations have the potential to alter interest rate projections and move gold rapidly.
Following the strong US labor data earlier, the market had temporarily reduced its rate cut expectations. However, Reuters noted that the market is still pricing in two rate cuts in 2026, with the first expected around June—a narrative that typically provides a boost to gold.
Risk sentiment (risk-on/risk-off) plays a role.
Gold's decline on Thursday was also linked to a sell-off in line with the weakening stock market and concerns about the AI theme that has shaken the technology sector. During extreme risk-off periods, gold can be "carried along" by liquidation before being sought again as a safe-haven asset.
Technical Analysis: Key Levels Under Contest
Technically, the short-term structure remains characterized by high volatility following yesterday's sharp decline.
1) Main Resistance: $5,000/oz
The $5,000 level is now a psychological "gate." As long as prices are unable to consistently close above this area, rallies are likely to be held back and trigger a pullback.
2) Nearest Support: $4,950–$4,900/oz
This zone is a watch area because it is close to the re-accumulation area after the decline. If it is broken cleanly, the correction has the potential to continue, targeting the next gradual support level.
3) Intraday Bias
Bullish intraday if gold is able to reclaim $5,000 and maintains it.
Continued bearish if it fails to hold above the $4,950–$4,900 area and selling pressure becomes dominant again.
Next Week's Prediction (February 16–20, 2026): Wide Range, Big Data at the Weekend
Next week, the market has the potential to move in a wide range due to a combination of liquidity and macro data.
Source: Newsmaker.id
