Dollar Steady Ahead of Jackson Hole
The US dollar moved flat as market participants await Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole symposium this weekend. The focus is on signals about the direction of interest rates ahead of the FOMC Meeting on September 16-17. Currently, the market is pricing in an 85% chance of a 25 bps cut and a total of ~54 bps of cuts by year-end, although mixed inflation data makes the policy picture more challenging.
From New Zealand, the kiwi slumped after the RBNZ cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 bps to 3.0% (as expected) and revealed the board had considered a 50 bps cut. The OCR lower bound projection was also cut to 2.55% from 2.85%, while TD Securities now sees the OCR reaching 2.5% in November—reflecting a stronger dovish signal.
Other currencies moved mixed: the dollar index was flat at 98.319 (previously 98.441). The euro weakened to $1.1636; The USD edged up to 0.8078 francs; weakened slightly to ¥147.61. The Swedish krona stabilized after the Riksbank held interest rates at 2%. The pound briefly strengthened after UK inflation beat expectations, but the surge in services was largely driven by airfares; the Bank of England (BoE) is seen paying closer attention to food inflation.
Ahead of the Fed minutes (meeting July 29-30), the market is weighing conflicting signals: CPI indicates limited tariff pressures, but higher PPI clouded the outlook. Some analysts believe Powell could sound more hawkish just in case. In crypto, bitcoin held around $113,897 after briefly reaching $112,578, while ether rose 1.8% to $4,234. (ayu)
Source: Newsmaker.id
