AUD/USD lurches into highs after NFP beats expectations
AUD/USD trades around 0.7110 on Wednesday at the time of writing, up 0.56% on the day, supported by a more favorable external backdrop and by the hawkish tone of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).
The Australian Dollar (AUD) first benefits from the release of China’s Consumer Price Index (CPI), as China is Australia’s main trading partner. Chinese inflation rose by 0.2% YoY in January, after a 0.8% gain previously. Although the figure comes in below market expectations, it signals a stabilization in disinflationary pressures and supports Asian-linked currencies, including the Aussie.
On the domestic front, comments from RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser provide additional support to the currency. He stated on Tuesday that inflation remains too high and that the institution is ready to do whatever is necessary to bring it back to target. Markets now price in a high probability of another 25 basis point rate hike at upcoming meetings, strengthening the relative appeal of the Australian Dollar.
Housing credit data also confirm the resilience of domestic demand. The increase in first-home buyer loans and the rise in the average loan size highlight the still solid momentum in the housing market, a factor that could sustain price pressures.
On the US side, the employment report tempers optimism among US Dollar (USD) sellers. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics show an increase of 130,000 jobs in January, above expectations of 70,000, while the Unemployment Rate fell to 4.3%. Annual wage growth, as measured by Average Hourly Earnings, remained firm at 3.7%. These elements support the view that the Federal Reserve (Fed) can keep rates within the current 3.50%-3.75% range at upcoming meetings.
However, significant downward revisions to previous figures, notably as part of the annual benchmark revision, highlight a more fragile underlying employment trend last year. This more nuanced reading limits support for the Greenback and allows AUD/USD to maintain a short-term bullish bias.
Investors now turn to upcoming Australian data, notably Consumer Inflation Expectations due on Thursday, to assess whether they confirm the hawkish message from the Reserve Bank of Australia.
Source: fxstreet
