AUD/USD steady amid US consumer confidence drop, Fed policy uncertainty
AUD/USD steady amid US consumer confidence drop, Fed policy uncertainty
AUD/USD trades sideways on Friday, around 0.6480 at the time of writing, following the release of a key indicator that showed a significant deterioration in US consumer confidence. The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index dropped to 50.3 in November from 53.6 in October, missing expectations of 53.2, reflecting growing concerns about inflation and the broader economic outlook.
Breaking down the data, the Current Conditions Index fell to 52.3 from 58.6, while the Expectations Index declined to 49. Inflation expectations were mixed, with the 1-year outlook edging up to 4.7%, while the 5-year measure eased to 3.6%. This combination of persistent inflation worries and weak economic sentiment weighed on the US Dollar (USD), as markets increased bets on a more dovish stance from the Federal Reserve (Fed).
Investors now see a possible rate cut in December, with the CME FedWatch tool suggesting a 72% chance of such a move, compared to 63% a week ago. However, Fed Chair Jerome Powell has maintained a cautious tone, emphasizing the need for more data before making any policy decision. The decline in consumer sentiment, combined with a softer labor market, highlighted by over 153,000 job cuts in October according to the Challenger report, continues to fuel expectations of upcoming monetary easing.
In Australia, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept its Official Cash Rate at 3.6% during its November meeting. Governor Michele Bullock stated that policymakers did not discuss rate reductions, while acknowledging that inflation remains too high. This cautious stance offers limited support to the Aussie, though concerns over China’s demand outlook continue to cap upside potential.
Source: Fxstreet
