Crypto Holding Its Breath Awaiting the Fed's 'Verdict'
The crypto market is relatively calm today as market participants focus on awaiting the Fed's interest rate decision. With the dollar trading flat and the USD/CHF pair consolidating in the 0.8050–0.8060 area, traders are opting to reduce their aggressiveness. Bitcoin and major altcoins are moving within a narrow range, as everyone awaits clarity on whether the Fed will simply cut interest rates or signal a more dovish stance next year.
According to currency market prices, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points at its December meeting is very high, approaching 88%. If expected, this would be the third consecutive rate cut. For risky assets like crypto, the potential for lower interest rates is usually good news because it lowers the cost of capital and can lead to a resurgence of speculative interest. However, the market is also wary: if Powell sounds hawkish and refuses to promise further cuts in 2026, the crypto euphoria could be immediately curtailed.
On the other hand, the Swiss National Bank's (SNB) stance, which is expected to hold interest rates at 0% and is reluctant to return to negative interest rates, is adding to the uncertainty. Color in today's macro story. SNB Chairman Martin Schlegel's statement about the "adverse side effects" of negative interest rates for savers and pension funds suggests major central banks are becoming increasingly cautious. For crypto investors, this reinforces the long-held narrative that the traditional financial system is seeking a new equilibrium, while digital assets are often positioned as a long-term alternative.
In short, the crypto market is currently in a "charging" phase, not a "sprinting" phase. Price movements may appear dull intraday, but the Fed's decision and the tone of Powell's press conference could trigger the next major move, either up or down. Short-term traders will focus on Bitcoin's initial reaction after the announcement, while long-term investors will be more concerned about the direction of interest rate policy in 2025–2026, which will shape the global liquidity climate for crypto assets going forward. (asd)
Source: Newsmaker.id
