Oil falls ahead of Trump-Putin summit in Alaska
Oil prices fell on Friday as traders awaited talks between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian leader Vladimir Putin, which some expect could lead to an easing of the sanctions imposed on Moscow over the Ukraine war.
Brent crude futures fell 50 cents, or 0.8%, to $66.34 a barrel by 0923 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures declined 57 cents, or 0.9%, to $63.39.
At Friday’s meeting between Trump and Putin in Alaska, a ceasefire in the Ukraine is at the top of the agenda. Trump has said he believes Russia is prepared to end the war in Ukraine. However, he is also threatening to impose secondary sanctions on countries that buy Moscow’s oil if the peace talks don’t advance.
"The market is watching out for whether there is a ceasefire or not. An expectation of a ceasefire translates into more Russian production," said Giovanni Staunovo, commodity analyst at UBS. "The question is will there be escalation or de-escalation?"
Even if there is a deal, it would likely take longer to ease sanctions on Russia because that would have to go through the U.S. Congress, Staunovo said.
For the week, WTI is set to drop 0.7% while Brent is set to rise 0.4%.
Also out on Friday was weaker economic data from China, which spurred worries about fuel demand.
Chinese government data showed factory output growth slumped to an eight-month low and retail sales growth expanded at its slowest pace since December, weighing on sentiment despite stronger oil throughput in the world’s second-largest crude user.
Throughput at Chinese refineries rose 8.9% year-on-year in July, however, that was down from June levels, which were the highest since September 2023. Despite the increase, China’s oil product exports last month were also up from a year ago, suggesting lower domestic fuel demand.
Forecasts of a growing oil market surplus also weighed on sentiment, as did the prospect of higher-for-longer U.S. interest rates.
Bank of America analysts said in a Thursday note they were widening their forecast for the oil market surplus, citing growing supplies from OPEC+, a group consisting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia and other allies.
The analysts now project an average surplus of 890,000 barrels per day from July 2025 through June 2026.
That forecast follows predictions earlier this week from the International Energy Agency saying the oil market looks "bloated" after the OPEC+ increases.
Source: Investing.com
