Oil steadies as investors assess Iran-Israel ceasefire, demand outlook
Oil prices recovered a little on Wednesday after slumping earlier this week, as investors assessed the stability of a ceasefire between Iran and Israel, while support also came from data that showed U.S. demand was relatively strong.
Brent crude futures were up 63 cents, or 0.9%, at $67.77 a barrel at 1050 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was up 60 cents, or 0.9%, to $64.97.
Brent settled on Tuesday at its lowest since June 10 and WTI at its lowest since June 5, both before Israel launched a surprise attack on key Iranian military and nuclear facilities on June 13.
Prices had rallied to five-month highs after the U.S. attacked Iran’s nuclear facilities over the weekend.
"Concerns about oil supply disruptions have declined," said Giovanni Staunovo, commodity analyst at UBS. "The drawdown shows that demand is still holding up in the U.S., the trade tensions were not as bad as some were fearing."
Industry data showed U.S. crude inventories fell by 4.23 million barrels in the week ended June 20, market sources said, citing American Petroleum Institute figures on Tuesday. [API/S]
Traders and analysts are also seeing some support from market expectations that the Federal Reserve could soon cut U.S. interest rates. Lower interest rates typically spur economic growth and demand for oil.
"Fed Chair Powell’s first testimony to Congress (on Tuesday) has hinted at a slight chance of bringing forward the first rate cut of 2025 to July...which should offer some form of floor on oil prices from the demand side," said OANDA senior market analyst Kelvin Wong.
A slew of U.S. macroeconomic data released overnight including on consumer confidence showed possibly weaker-than- expected economic growth in the world’s largest oil consumer, bolstering expectations of Fed rate cuts this year.
Futures point to nearly 60 basis points’ worth of easing by December.
On the geopolitical front, a preliminary U.S. intelligence assessment said U.S. airstrikes did not destroy Iran’s nuclear capability and only set it back by a few months, as a shaky ceasefire brokered by U.S. President Donald Trump took hold between Iran and Israel.
Earlier on Tuesday, both Iran and Israel signalled that the air war between the two nations had ended, at least for now, after Trump publicly scolded them for violating the ceasefire.
As the two countries lifted civilian restrictions after 12 days of war - which the U.S. joined with an attack on Iran’s uranium-enrichment facilities - each sought to claim victory.
"While concerns regarding Middle Eastern supply have diminished for now, they have not entirely disappeared, and there remains a stronger demand for immediate supply," said ING analysts in a client note.
Oil prices will likely consolidate at around $65-70 per barrel levels as traders look to more U.S. macroeconomic data this week and the Fed’s rate decision, said independent market analyst Tina Teng.
Investors were also awaiting U.S. government data on domestic crude and fuel stockpiles due on Wednesday. [EIA/S]
Source: Investing.com
