Oil Drops as Trump Signals Iran Strike Decision Within Two Weeks
Oil slumped after President Donald Trump signaled a decision on whether to strike Iran will be made within two weeks, easing fears about an imminent attack from the US.
Brent tumbled as much as 3.5% to trade below $77 a barrel, before clawing back some losses. The decision on Iran would take some time due to the “substantial chance of negotiations,” Trump said in a message through the White House spokeswoman.
It’s been a turbulent week for the oil market, with futures swinging in a range of around $8, volatility spiking to the highest since 2022, key premiums significantly widening, and options at one stage more bullish than after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Brent closed almost 3% higher on Thursday, in a trading session that was shortened due to a US holiday, on concerns over a potential strike from the US over the weekend. Senior American officials had been preparing for the possibility of an attack, although the situation was still evolving, according to people familiar with the matter.
“We are highly skeptical that talks will materialize,” said Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, chief analyst at A/S Global Risk Management. “All indications suggest that we are now entering a period of continued uncertainty over the next two weeks.”
Israel has continued to attack Iran’s nuclear sites, but for now the country’s crude-exporting infrastructure remains unscathed. There are signs, however, that the OPEC producer is racing to get its oil out into the world, as storage tanks at the critical Kharg Island export terminal brim with crude.
The biggest concern for the oil market centers on the Strait of Hormuz, but so far there are no signs that Tehran is seeking to disrupt shipping through the narrow waterway at the entrance to the Persian Gulf. About a fifth of the world’s crude output passes through the strait.
Trump is set to attend a National Security meeting on Friday morning, according to a daily schedule issued by the White House. Iran should never get a nuclear weapon, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said in a post on X following a meeting with UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy to discuss the conflict.
Brent for August settlement declined 1.8% to $77.46 a barrel as of 10:45 a.m. in London.
Futures are still on track for a third weekly gain.
WTI for August delivery edged 1% higher to $74.26, after there was no settlement Thursday due to the US holiday.
Source : Bloomberg
