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Market & Economic Intelligence Platform Insight on Macro, Commodities, Equities & Policy

30 May 2025 16:48  |

Oil Poised for Small Weekly Loss Ahead of OPEC+ Supply Decision

Oil was on track for a marginal weekly decline ahead of an OPEC+ meeting on output policy that’s expected to lead to another supply hike.

Still, West Texas Intermediate futures edged above $61 a barrel on Friday, paring some of that weekly loss. A sub-group led by Saudi Arabia is set to meet on Saturday to decide on July production levels, following preliminary talks last week on a third consecutive supply increase. 

“The real story now is tomorrow’s OPEC+ meeting among the eight producers that conducted voluntary cuts,” said Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, chief analyst at A/S Global Risk Management. “The increase is coming at a time of weak economic signals and heightened uncertainty, which is weighing on prices.”

The revival of idled output by OPEC and its allies at a faster-than-expected pace has raised concerns around a looming glut and helped to drag oil lower. 

Fears over a global economic slowdown due to President Donald Trump’s tariffs has also put pressure on prices, though they now face legal uncertainties. A US trade court blocked parts of the president’s levies this week, deeming them illegal, while a federal appeals court has offered a temporary reprieve from the ruling.

US crude stockpiles, meanwhile, shrunk by 2.8 million barrels last week, the most in about two months, according to data from the Energy Information Administration on Thursday. Gasoline inventories also declined.

Source: Bloomberg

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