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Market & Economic Intelligence Platform Insight on Macro, Commodities, Equities & Policy

26 May 2025 22:16  |

Oil Swings as Market Weighs Easing Trade Tensions, OPEC+ Outlook

Oil fluctuated as the market weighed easing trade tensions against the outlook for rising OPEC+ supply.

Brent traded below $65 a barrel, erasing earlier gains. President Donald Trump extended the deadline for higher tariffs on the European Union, triggering a global relief rally. But crude prices remain under pressure as OPEC and its allies consider another bumper output hike. 

“Commodity markets have responded as expected to Trump delaying tariffs on the EU,” said Ole Hansen, head of commodities strategy at Saxo Bank A/S. “The OPEC+ meeting is clearly also a focus given the risk of another bumper production increase.”

Oil has been under pressure since mid-January as the fallout from Trump’s sweeping tariffs and retaliatory measures worsened the outlook for demand. Expectations around an OPEC+ meeting on Sunday have added to bearish headwinds, with the group set to decide on its supply policy for July. 

Trump, meanwhile, expressed optimism about talks with Iranian officials as he seeks to put limits on the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program. The US and Iran held discussions last week in Rome that the Iranian foreign minister and lead negotiator, Abbas Araghchi, said could lead to an agreement.

Trading was reduced on Monday as markets were closed for holidays in London and New York.

Source: Bloomberg

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