Brent Rises, Hormuz Leads
Brent oil prices strengthened in today's trading, with the latest position hovering around US$78.445 per barrel. This increase occurred as the energy market returned to a cautious state due to escalating tensions between the United States and Iran, particularly after the ceasefire between the two countries was said to be increasingly fragile.
From a fundamental perspective, the biggest factor driving Brent was the risk of supply disruptions from the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices surged after US President Donald Trump declared the ceasefire with Iran was "over," opening the door to further attacks. Brent even approached US$80 per barrel as market participants worried about disrupting the world's main energy trade route.
Tensions intensified after the US revoked permits that previously allowed Iran to sell oil globally. This move heightened concerns that oil supplies from the Middle East could be disrupted again. The market was also watching Iran's threat to close the Strait of Hormuz if US attacks continued, as this route is crucial for global oil and gas shipments.
However, Brent's rise was not entirely without pressure. EIA data shows that US crude oil inventories rose by 3 million barrels in the week ending July 3, to 411.4 million barrels. This increase in inventories is usually a negative sentiment because it indicates increasing US domestic supply. However, gasoline and distillate stocks actually fell, so the pressure from the inventory data remains contained.
From a macro perspective, high oil prices have also revived inflation concerns. The Fed minutes showed that central bank officials remain concerned about price pressures, and some see a reason to raise interest rates if inflation does not improve. This means that the oil surge will not only impact the energy market but could also influence interest rate expectations, the US dollar, and global market sentiment.
Technically, Brent is currently bullish as long as it can hold above the support area of US$77.50–US$76.80 per barrel. If prices can break through and maintain above US$79.30, the opportunity to reach US$80.00–US$81.50 remains open. Conversely, if Brent fails to hold above US$77.50, the price risks a correction to US$76.00 or even US$74.80. Currently, Brent is trending toward limited upside, but remains highly sensitive to the latest news on Iran, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Fed's stance. (asd)*
Source: Newsmaker.id
