Oil Swings as Investors Track Threats to Middle East Energy
Oil Swings as Investors Track Threats to Middle East Energy | Investor Pantau Ancaman terhadap Energi Timur Tengah, Minyak Berfluktuasi
Oil prices were choppy as investors assessed the widening impact of the U.S.-Iran war on Middle East energy markets, with the conflict entering its fifth day. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) steadied and settled just below $75 a barrel, after surging roughly 11% over the prior two sessions.
Traders remained focused on what the U.S. military might do next and how far the fallout could spread across regional energy infrastructure and shipping. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said ground troops are not currently part of operations involving Iran.
Prices briefly dipped after Iran’s semi-official Tasnim news outlet denied a New York Times report that operatives from Iran’s Ministry of Intelligence had reached out to the CIA—via another country’s intelligence service—with an offer to discuss terms for ending the conflict. That report had earlier pushed crude into negative territory intraday.
On the supply and logistics front, Saudi Arabia said there was an attempted attack on its Ras Tanura refinery and confirmed it is diverting supplies away from the Persian Gulf to the Red Sea to keep operations running. An Indian refiner told customers it was suspending fuel exports as global prices surge. Meanwhile, at least three very large crude carriers (VLCCs) that left Asia intending to load in the Gulf reportedly diverted toward the Atlantic Basin, reflecting rising security and shipping risks.
The war has thrown the oil market into turmoil, with strikes and counter-strikes spreading across the Gulf, pushing producers to lock in or shut output and leaving traffic through the Strait of Hormuz—a chokepoint that carries about one-fifth of global oil—nearly halted. Disruptions beyond crude are also raising fears of a broader energy crunch and renewed inflation pressure.
“The market won’t calm down unless it sees proof of traffic resuming toward normalcy,” said Vandana Hari, founder of Vanda Insights. A quick restart of flows is crucial for Gulf producers to sustain output as storage fills. The conflict is also triggering fresh production risks as Iran’s neighbors, including Iraq (OPEC’s second-largest producer), come under attack.
President Donald Trump said Tuesday that the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) would offer insurance to vessels to help maintain the flow of energy and trade, with naval escorts “if necessary.” Still, the shipping industry sees the plan as only a partial fix to a historic crisis, and Marsh, the world’s largest insurance broker, said the arrangement could take weeks to put in place.
Satellite and industry data suggest key Saudi storage sites are filling rapidly. Kayrros reported that tanks at Ras Tanura are nearing capacity and the Ju’aymah terminal is quickly running out of spare room. Goldman Sachs expects Brent to trade in the $80s in March as the market digests mixed signals—some relief if Hormuz flows gradually recover, but renewed concern if evidence of production cuts grows.
Refined fuel markets are also surging: European diesel posted its biggest two-day gain on record, and jet fuel prices are jumping. If sustained, higher refined-product costs could add to global inflation.
In the U.S., EIA data showed crude stockpiles rose about 3.5 million barrels, the highest since May, easing concerns that U.S. supplies may be too tight to backfill lost Middle East barrels if Hormuz remains effectively shut.
Close / latest levels:
WTI (April) settled at $74.66 a barrel in New York.
Brent (May) traded around $81.40 a barrel.
Source : Newsmaker.id
