Inflation Expectations for Year Ahead Rise in Fed Survey
Consumers see higher inflation in the year ahead, with signs that lower and middle-income households are feeling most of the burden of rising price pressures, according to a monthly survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Expectations for consumer price increases one year ahead jumped to 3.4% in September from 3.2% in the prior month. The increase was most significant for households earning less than $50,000, and for consumers with at most a high school education. Estimates for annualized inflation five years ahead also ticked up to 3% from 2.9%, while measures for three years ahead were unchanged at 3%.
Fed officials are closely following estimates for consumer price increases, trying to assess whether tariffs will result in a one-time price increase or drive a more persistent inflation shock. Following their decision to lower interest rates by a quarter percentage point last month, policymakers showed a narrow majority favored at least two more quarter-point rate cuts this year.
Still, some officials have expressed caution over additional cuts, as measures of underlying inflation remain about one percentage point above their 2% goal. The New York Fed is among several surveys that have shown a deterioration in consumer sentiment toward the economy, as inflation remains high and businesses pull back from hiring.
Consumers’ expectations toward the labor market continued to deteriorate in the survey. The perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next 12 months rose, and expectations for the overall unemployment rate increased. On the other hand, the perceived chances of finding a job in the next three months rebounded somewhat in September after recording the sharpest monthly drop on record in August.
Households’ perceptions of their own finances were mixed. More consumers said they were better off than a year ago, but the share of participants who believed their situation will deteriorate in the coming year also rose.
Source : Bloomberg.com
