European Central Bank leaves key rates unchanged as expected
The European Central Bank (ECB) announced on Thursday that it left key rates unchanged following the December policy meeting, as expected. With this decision, the interest rate on the main refinancing operations, the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility stood at 2.15%, 2.4% and 2%, respectively.
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This section below was published as a preview of the European Central Bank's policy decisions at 05:00 GMT.
The European Central Bank is widely anticipated to keep interest rates on hold.
ECB President Lagarde is likely to reiterate the meeting-by-meeting approach.
EUR/USD remains stable above 1.1800, with buyers looking to return.
The European Central Bank (ECB) is holding its two-day meeting and will announce its monetary policy decision on Thursday. The ECB is widely expected to keep interest rates on hold for the fifth consecutive meeting, leaving the main refinancing operations, the marginal lending facility, and the deposit facility at 2.15%, 2.4%, and 2%, respectively.
Additionally, ECB President Christine Lagarde will hold a press conference afterward to explain policymakers’ reasoning behind the decision.
Ahead of the announcement, the EUR/USD pair trades above the 1.1800 mark, stabilizing after retracing sharply from January’s peak at 1.2082.
What to expect from the ECB interest rate decision?
The ECB is in a good position and plans to remain there, refraining from any further monetary policy action. The ECB was among the first major central banks to cut rates after post-pandemic inflation peaks that drove multi-decade highs in rates. President Christine Lagarde's latest mantra has been that monetary policy is in a “good place,” and is expected to repeat the message.
The Governing Council decided to keep rates unchanged at its December meeting, offering no fresh clues about future action. As ING noted, “The minutes of the ECB’s December meeting confirm the ECB’s wait-and-see stance in a macro environment, in which the base case looks very benign, but risks remain unusually high.”
In the meantime, macroeconomic data released in the last couple of months confirm officials’ stance. The Euro area economy has not only been resilient but is finally showing signs of improvement.
According to the latest Eurostat data, the European Union (EU) grew by 0.3% quarter-on-quarter in the three months to December, while the 2025 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 1.6% year-on-year.
In the meantime, inflation cooled down in January, as expected. Eurostat reported that the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) rose 1.7% in the year to January as expected, while easing from the 1.9% posted in December. The core HICP, which excludes volatile components such as food or energy, rose by 2.3% as anticipated, matching the previous month’s figure.
Finally, it is worth remembering that, speaking after the ECB’s final Governing Council meeting, President Lagarde made it clear that, given that monetary policy is in a “good place,” this does not imply a fixed or predictable path for rates. She also emphasised the ECB’s meeting-by-meeting approach.
In this scenario, the upcoming monetary policy decision is likely to be a non-event. The general consensus is that the ECB will maintain its hawkish stance and that President Lagarde will repeat the message that the ECB is in wait-and-see mode, attentive to economic developments without a pre-set monetary path.
Source: Fxstreet
