RBA set for first interest rate hike in over two years as inflation pressures intensify
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is widely expected to raise the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to 3.85% from 3.6% after concluding its first monetary policy meeting of 2026.
The decision will be announced on Tuesday at 03:30 GMT, accompanied by the Monetary Policy Statement (MPS) and the quarterly economic forecasts, followed by RBA Governor Michele Bullock’s press conference at 04:30 GMT.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) is set to rock in reaction to the RBA policy announcement and updated economic projections.
RBA is set to break the global easing trend
The RBA is on track to deliver its first interest rate hike in more than two years when it meets on Tuesday for its February monetary policy meeting, ditching the global easing trend in an attempt to curb the rising inflationary pressures.
During the press conference following the December monetary policy decision, Governor Michele Bullock explicitly said, “the Board will do what it needs to do to get inflation down,” adding that “If data suggests inflation is not slowing, that will be considered at the Feb board meeting.”
Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) showed last Wednesday that the monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) leaped to 3.8% in December from 3.4% in November and above forecasts of a 3.6% rise.
The trimmed mean CPI, the RBA’s closely watched measure of core inflation, rose 0.9% quarterly in the fourth quarter, beating the market forecasts of a 0.8% increase.
Following the hot inflation numbers, money markets implied a 73% probability of a rate hike, compared with 60% previously, according to Reuters.
Meanwhile, Australia’s big four banks, including the ANZ, Westpac, Commonwealth Bank of Australia and the National Australia Bank (NAB), altered their call, forecasting a quarter-point RBA rate hike in February.
Another economic indicator backing the expected rate lift-off was the Australian labor data. On January 22, the ABS said that the Unemployment Rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.1%, the lowest level since May, from 4.3%. Net employment jumped by 65.2K in December from -28.7K in November.
Source: FXstreet.com
