The Government is Shut Down, But CPI Data is Released — Can Employment and PCE Data Also Be Released?
The public was surprised last week when the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released US inflation data (CPI) despite the federal government remaining in a shutdown. However, behind this surprising market release, there were technical and administrative reasons that allowed some economic institutions to remain operational.
According to a report from the US Department of Labor, the BLS is categorized as an "essential service." This means that their activities continue during the shutdown because they are considered crucial to monetary policy, finance, and national economic stability. Inflation data like the CPI is a key reference for the Federal Reserve in determining interest rates.
Furthermore, the BLS still has reserve funds from the previous fiscal year's budget, which it uses to maintain the continuity of vital data publication. A BLS official quoted by Bloomberg stated that these emergency funds are sufficient to cover statistical activities for several weeks, even if Congress has not yet approved a new budget.
Interestingly, the CPI data released last week was for the September 2025 period, which had already been collected and processed before the shutdown began. Therefore, the release can still be scheduled, even though most federal government activity has ceased.
However, this situation does not guarantee that all other economic data will still be released. Agencies such as the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the Census Bureau, which are responsible for publishing PCE inflation (Personal Consumption Expenditures) data and the employment report (NFP), are in a more difficult position because they are not fully categorized as essential services.
A Reuters analyst predicted that next month's PCE data and employment report could be delayed if the budget impasse in Congress persists. "The CPI data could be released because the system was already running before the shutdown, but the next PCE and NFP will be difficult to release on time without the government reopening," the report explained.
This situation adds to market uncertainty, especially ahead of the Fed's interest rate decision next week. The US central bank has historically relied heavily on two key data points—inflation and employment—to determine the direction of monetary policy. If new data is delayed, the Fed's analysis room could be further narrowed.
"The market will experience high volatility if economic data starts to get bogged down," Wells Fargo senior economist Sarah Johnson told CNBC. "Without employment and PCE data, the Fed's decisions could be based more on expectations than facts."
In other words, while last week's CPI release provided some clarity, market uncertainty remains high as long as the shutdown remains ongoing and other important economic data remains pending. (mrv)
Source: Newsmaker.id
