Trump–Xi Moments: Peace or Tariff War?
Donald Trump and Xi Jinping's meeting is scheduled for Thursday morning, October 30, 2025 (Korean time) in South Korea on the sidelines of the APEC Summit. This will be their first face-to-face meeting since 2019 and is seen as a crucial moment amid escalating trade tensions. Media and White House officials have confirmed the schedule, with the caption "Thursday morning" local time.
The main agenda is clear: tariffs, technology, and strategic raw materials. Trump has threatened an additional 100% tariff on Chinese imports starting November 1 if no deal is reached; some media outlets have even suggested an option of up to 155% as maximum pressure. Meanwhile, Beijing has recently tightened export controls on rare earths vital for chips, magnets, electric vehicles, and military equipment—a new trigger for friction. Washington is also considering restricting exports of products made with US software in response.
The official goal of the meeting: to defuse tensions and open up space for further negotiations. Previously, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent emphasized that dialogue remains ongoing despite the heated rhetoric, while trade teams from both countries are arranging preliminary meetings. Essentially, both sides are seeking a "brake" to prevent the tit-for-tat spiral from hitting their respective economies and global markets.
Possibility one is that the situation thaws. 100% tariffs are postponed or eased. In exchange, there is some relaxation of technology export regulations. Markets typically feel more at ease.
Possibility two is that tensions escalate. Tariffs remain in place. Beijing retaliates with stricter regulations for critical raw materials. Markets become more cautious.
Possibility three is a temporary pause. Both sides agree to continue negotiating without a clear decision on tariffs. Market direction awaits the content of the press conference and official statements.
Market Impact:
- If the situation eases, global stocks tend to rise. If tensions escalate, stocks usually fall.
- The US dollar can weaken slightly as the situation cools. When tensions increase, the dollar usually strengthens as people seek safety.
- Gold and silver tend to fall or remain flat during calm periods. When tensions increase, both usually rise as a safe haven.
- Oil tends to rise slightly if economic improvement is expected. However, if tensions arise, prices could fall due to fears of weakening demand, but they could also rise if supply flows are disrupted. (asd)
Source: Newsmaker.id
