Goldman Sachs: Brent Could Reach US$120
Goldman Sachs warned that Brent oil prices could potentially surge above US$120 per barrel in the fourth quarter if disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz continue. However, this scenario is not the investment bank's primary projection.
Currently, Goldman still expects Brent to hover around US$80 per barrel in the fourth quarter and fall to US$75 next year, assuming tensions in the Middle East ease. However, risks to the price projection are considered to be tilted to the upside due to shipping disruptions in Hormuz and potential new risks in the Red Sea.
The global oil market has been shaken again after the escalation of the conflict between the United States and Iran, while oil flows from the Persian Gulf reportedly fell sharply to below 45% of pre-war levels. Brent briefly re-surfaced to US$91 per barrel due to supply concerns.
Risks also increased after the Iran-backed Houthi group in Yemen threatened to block shipping to Saudi Arabian ports. Saudi export routes through the Red Sea had previously been a key alternative when shipping from the Persian Gulf was disrupted.
Goldman believes lower global inventories make the oil market more vulnerable to supply shocks. However, weakening Chinese imports and a more sensitive demand response to high prices could limit further gains.
As a result, oil prices are still likely to fluctuate significantly. If the ceasefire fails, Hormuz remains closed, and the Houthi threat to the Red Sea intensifies, Brent could surge sharply again. This situation has the potential to drive global inflation, depress stock markets, strengthen the US dollar, and keep gold sensitive to war risks and expectations of high interest rates. (arl)
Source: Newsmaker.id
