US Investment Data Weakens, Markets Monitor Yields and Dollar
US Core Durable Goods Orders (m/m) rose 0.4%, below the 0.5% forecast and a sharp slowdown from 1.0% in the previous period. This data signals that demand for capital goods from the business sector is not as strong as expected, reinforcing the narrative that some investment activity is losing momentum.
Because the "core" component excludes volatile transportation, the market often reads it as a cleaner indication of the direction of corporate spending. Small differences from consensus don't always trigger major moves, but a slowdown from 1.0% to 0.4% is enough to add a cautious tone amidst a mixed US data set.
Market Impact
USD: likely to come under slight pressure as weaker data could add more reason for the market to consider policy easing, although the USD's direction remains heavily influenced by geopolitical risk-off and oil prices.
Treasury Yields: potential for a slight decline if the market perceives this data as reinforcing the slowdown story, but the reaction could be limited if inflation/energy remain dominant.
Gold: Weakening data usually gives gold room to rise through lower yields and a softer dollar, but gold remains sensitive if the USD is sought again as a safe haven.
What to watch next:
Reaction of 2-Year and 10-Year yields (whether they are truly falling or just noise).
DXY direction after data release.
Next US data (inflation and consumption) to confirm whether this weakening is widespread or temporary. (Cp)
Source: Newsmaker.id
